Canadian Yields Could Underperform US Yields

There has been a palpable shift in global central bank policy in recent months. Suddenly, central banks have given up the notion that inflation is transitory and are now outdoing each other in the pace of their hikes. The Bank of Canada is one such example. They started with a 25bp hike in March, switched to 50bp hikes in April and June, and dramatically hiked by 100bps to 2.5% in July (Figure 1). In their statement, they now say that inflation "will likely remain around 8% in the next few months" and that "domestic price pressures from excess demand are becoming more prominent".

To read the entire article, click the button below:

Related Articles

  • August 21, 2025
    September futures contracts face first notice August 29 and first delivery September 2, following the Labour Day holiday. The holiday timing prompts early roll trades as managers and dealers attempt to close September contracts ahead of schedule, creating optimal liquid roll dates between August 25 - 27. The holiday period typically creates more volatile roll pricing as market participation shifts. Additionally, futures have been trading rich to bonds since July, further complicating execution. Timing options will be active for CGZ and CGF contracts this quarter.
    August 13, 2025
    After a 43-basis-point tightening over 13 months, Canadian 5-year swap spreads are showing signs of stabilizing, opening up new opportunities in fixed-income markets. This tightening reflects changes in risk appetite, government bond issuance, and mortgage market hedging practices. While economic uncertainties persist, current spread levels suggest a potential for mean reversion, particularly when compared to historical trends. This market development provides tactical entry points for relative value strategies.